Our Future Through My Eyes

Abstract

            People always wanted to know what they will face in future. Numerous theories were created about our world structure, the impact of different processes onto our existence, and the expected consequences of the events we experience today. Thinking about future is an interesting task, and this paper will provide detailed analysis of my ideas about how I view our future.

            Introduction

            “Given the acceleration of change, it is clear that predicting the future has become more difficult than ever. If we try to look ahead more than a decade or so, the crystal ball gets cloudy” (Paragon, 1999). It is true that we face significant problems in trying to delineate the major trends in our future. With the growing needs to know what waits for us in future, the obstacles against predicting this future also increase. The problem is not in the fact that we may not be aware of the global processes. The problem is in the constantly increasing complicatedness of these processes: it is not rare when we cannot find proper definition for this or that process even in our present. However, it is interesting and useful to predict future, as prediction requires profound insight into what currently happens in our world. Prediction is the means of analysis, and this analysis is an effective tool of seeing our present and future objectively. I will try to be objective in my prediction, though it is understandable that I cannot avoid subjectivity in my judgments.

            Several decades ago people were overwhelmed with the predictions, which seem too naive for us. The simplicity of people’s existence at that time was compared to the “techno-optimism” in future. People’s predictions about our future were mainly related to the technical progress and expectations of radical technological changes in every family. The role of predictions today has totally changed. We have gone much further in analyzing global processes, and they are no more limited by technological progress only. We have closely connected the notions of globalization, industrial revolution, politics and the role of government with what expects us in the nearest decades. This is why I will not break this tradition and will concentrate my efforts on the issues of globalization, governmental control and economic development in future.

            Globalization is an extremely debatable issue and there is no unilateral agreement as for its positivism or negativity for the contemporary society. I personally view globalization as the major driving force of the oncoming changes; however these changes will not be positive for all social objects.

“The basic engine behind the emergence of a globalized world economy lies not in goods, people, money, and ideas becoming increasingly and similarly transportable across national frontiers. It lies, rather, in capital becoming historically more portable and more internationally mobile than anything else”. (Heredia, 1997)

In this sense, we mean everything which could be defined by the term capital: finances, knowledge, labor, technologies, etc. It is evident, that at the age of global competition far from everyone will have fair access to these resources. In the nearest decades the gap between those who possess and manage capital, and those who do not have access to these resources, will only increase. There are no consistent factors to predict that the situation will change. It is difficult to disagree that globalization will change the heterogeneity of economic development at international level. We face the reality, in which developing countries are drastically behind the small group of developed giants. The disparities between the developed countries are also visible, which will make globalization even more complicated in future (Heredia, 1997).

While the financial flows into developed countries have seriously increased, it is yet impossible to predict that developing countries will improve their economic situation in future. The reason is in capital flows being mostly short-term; the government’s ability to manage these flows, and as a result, the monetary policies, is limited. “Business, we are told, answers to the public through the competition of the free market, but government strives for secrecy and unaccountability” (Parenti, 1988). This conflict of economic openness in globalization and well-known governmental secrecy in performing major economic reforms will ultimately prevent developing countries from growing economically. Moreover, we will face the conflict between globalized space and the limiting power of the government.

            “The strongest message coming from international financial institutions, development agencies, and professional economists over the past 15 years is that state intervention is bad for economic growth” (Heredia, 1997). The development of communication technologies has created doubts as for the power of government in controlling our actions and limiting our freedoms. What will happen in future, will not be directly connected with the stable power of traditional government as political and social institution. One may expect that in civilized society people will have the recognized set of behavioral norms and standards, which will be followed without any need to control them. However, this idea is too idealistic to be ever realized in our society. Globalization will soon become the synonym of disorder. Internet and computer technologies are the brightest examples of these future trends.

Despite some predictions, that government will cease its existence and will no more create significant impact onto our lives there are no grounds to assert that there will be no government at all. I agree with Parenti (1988), who stated that “political life is replete with deceit, corruption, and plunder. […] but whether we like it or not, politics and government play a crucial role in determining the conditions in our lives.” The conflict between globalization and the limiting power of government will grow until society realizes the need to create a globalized political and social entity to manage global environment, and to eliminate the physical borders, which traditional governments have to recognize. It is impossible to expect these changes in the nearest future. What I think is that such radical changes will not take place in the oncoming decades. We will have to live through the time of global disorder in order to come to realization that we need changes.

            Conclusion

The Government has emerged within the traditional territorial borders and territorial thinking, and these traditions will change only in the distant future (Paragon, 1999). Though we are coming to realizing the importance of globalization, but the process is too slow and is connected with serious obstacles. Our nearest future will have the picture of growing global disorder regularly tinted with our vain attempts to change the order and to control global environment.

            Short summary:

            I think that our future will be determined by the ongoing processes of globalization. Globalization will increase the gap between developing and developed countries due to unequal access to financial resources and wrong understanding of governmental role in economy. Our future will also be connected with the increasing conflict between the limiting power of government and the increasing globalization. The role of traditional government will decrease to be substituted by more global political structures. This will help to eliminate the conflict between geographically limited governmental power and informational globalization. The words globalization and disorder will be synonymic until we create the solid social structure similar to global government.

References

Heredia, B. (1997). Prosper or perish? Development in the age of global capital. Current

History, November, pp. 131-136.

Parenti, M. (1988). Democracy for the Few. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Paragon, D. (1999). Vision of the future. Retrieved December 1, 2007, from

http://www.optionality.net/mag/vision.html