Observed teleconnection patterns

1. Explain how observed teleconnection patterns can help in the preparation of a seasonal weather forecast.

Climate teleconnection is used for long rang climate prediction. Being able to forecast seasonal weather helps the US energy market. It allows the US energy market to figure out the supply and demand for the season.”Long-range climate prediction has grown in importance for the energy industry in recent years. Risk managers, economists, and engineers all require a “heads up” future view of how cold the winter season may be or the threat of extreme heat during the summer season to be best prepared for supply and demand issues” (Sailors, 2001).

2. If the temperature is dropping and the dew point is holding steady, what is your forecast for the relative humidity? Explain your answer.

If the temperature drops and the dew point holds steady the relative humidity will go up. When air is cooled down it can’t hold much water, which saturates the air increase the relative humidity.

3. In what ways are severe thunderstorms different from ordinary cell thunderstorms? What are some of the meteorological or atmospheric conditions that favor the development of severe thunderstorms?

The difference between ordinary cell thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, is that severe thunderstorms “produce at least one of the following: large hail with a diameter of at least one inch, surface wind gusts of at least 50 knots (58 mi/hr), or a tornado” (Ahrens, 2014, p.288).

Some conditions that favor the development of a severe thunderstorms are:
1. random, turbulent eddies that lift small bubbles of air
2. unequal heating at the surface
3. the effect of terrain (such as small hills) or the lifting of air along shallow boundaries of converging surface winds
4. diverging upper-level winds, coupled with converging surface winds and rising air
5. large-scale uplift along mountain barriers or gently rising terrain
6. warm air rising along a frontal zone (Ahrens, 2014, p.288)

4. Where do thunderstorms form most frequently in the US? Why is this the case? Is this also where most tornadoes occur? Explain.

According to NOAA “the greatest severe weather threat in the U.S. extends from Texas to southern Minnesota” (n.d). The reason Texas to Southern Minnesota has the most frequently thunderstorms is that they have the perfect condition for producing thunderstorms. The states are located where the warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, cold air from Canada, and dry air from the Rocky Mountains meet. Not all thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Only severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes due their fast rotating surface winds.

5. The region of greatest tornado activity shifts northward from early spring to summer. Why does this occur?

The greatest tornado activity shifts northward, because of the Gulf of Mexico warm moist air moving north. During the spring the humid air from the gulf and jet streams surge northward.

References:

Ahrens, C. D. (2014). Essentials of Meteorology: An Invitation to the Atmosphere, 7th Edition. [VitalSource Bookshelf version]. Retrieved from http://online.vitalsource.com/books/9781305439733/id/ch10-L1

Sailor, Peggy. (2001). Changing climate teleconnections and implications on US climate. Electric Energy. Retrieved from http://www.electricenergyonline.com/show_article.php?mag=&article=11

Severe weather 101. (n.d). NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. Retrieved from http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/thunderstorms/