Trend Forecasting

Chapter Four: Cultural Indicators
* John Naisbitt: Megatrends
* Time frame: Decades
* The technique for gathering signals: Content analysis of 6,000 local newspapers each month * The methods to interpret the signals: Check the shifting space devoted to an issue * The range of the forecasts: A critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society * The move toward an information-based economy

* The dual compensations of “high tech” and “high touch” products * The shift to a global economy
* The shift away from hierarchical structures in favor of informal networks * The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society * Faith Popcorn
* Brain Reserve (Marketing consultancy) in 1974
* The Popcorn Report (1991)
* “Cocooning”
* Cocooning
* (A stay-at-home syndrome building in 1981) had repercussions in multiple industries (e.g., home renovation, master bedroom suite, larger baths, casual, comfortable basic fashion, bed linens, housewares, car with portable phones and elaborate sound systematic.) * Safe, homelike environment

* Fashion:
* Polar fleece
* Internet & catalog fashions
* Counter-trends
* Trends that contrast with another prevailing set of trends, both of which offer opportunities for businesses because of the contradictory aspects of human behavior * Stan Davis
* Mass Customization
* Coined by Davis in 1987
* The process of using mass production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services * Mass customization
* The process of using mass-production techniques to create and deliver customized goods and services * A process that has been used by apparel manufacturers and retailers since the mid-1990s to provide consumers with design input and custom fit * Stan Davis, Future Perfect

* Chris Anderson
* The Long Tail
* Time frame:
* Decades
* Techniques for gathering signals:
* Interviewing Experts Internet business CEOs
* Gaining access to proprietary data from high-profile Internet-based companies * Methods to interpret the signals
* Plotted the data—sales on the vertical axis and stock ranked by popularity on the horizontal axis- and hypothesized about resulting pattern * Range of the forecasts:

* Applies to online marketing
* “The trick to trend-spotting is to ask the right people.” * Anderson, using his skills as a journalist:
* Interviewed both CEOs of Internet businesses and academics doing related research * Examined data and discovered a repeating pattern
* Looked for additional examples
* Gave his insight a catchy name—“the long tail” to catch people’s attention (Anderson, 2006) * In the 21st century, hits will still happen but niches represent the new, emerging marketplace—a marketplace of infinite choice * Environmental scanning

* Enables the forecaster to find signals of change and signpoints to the future in today’s media
* Research strategy 1: Media scan
* Research strategy 2: Interviewing
* Research Strategy 3: Observation
* Media scan
* Scanning media for clues to change by paying special attention to the following signals of the future:
* New and unusual businesses
* Innovative and novel products
* Unusual travel destinations
* New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure-related activities * Shifts in the workplace and the way people do their jobs * New shopping locations, store designs, and services for customers * Stories about people and their unique adjustments to life’s challenges * Stories about neighborhoods with an interesting mix of people, shopping, or ethnic cultures * Interviewing

* Ask people
* Ask experts
* Focus group interview
* In-depth interview
* Delphi method (anonymous)
* Identify the experts

* Introduce an issue for debate
* Round one-obtain initial response from experts
* Summarize the responses
* Report on round one & initiate round two
* Report on round two & initiate round three
* In-depth interview
* A research technique in which a researcher interviews a single consumer at a time in a lengthy dialogue aimed at discovering the meaning products or brands have for that consumer * Focus group interview

* Take the dynamic of the dinner party conversation into a more formal interview setting * Moderator uses a predesigned set of questions to guide the discussion to topics of interest to the research sponsor * Delphi method

* Identify the experts
* Introduce an issue for debate
* Round one-obtain initial response from experts
* Summarize the responses
* Report on round one & initiate round two
* Report on round two & initiate round three
* Scenario writing
* A technique used by futurist consisting of a series of stories or summaries that describe the evolution from the present situation to one or more possible futures 1. Identify an issue or decision that will influence future business decisions. 2. Identify forces and trends in the environment that influence the issue. 3. Rank these influences in terms of their importance and the degree of uncertainty associated with each. 4. Locate any quantitative data that can be used to support scenario writing (for example, demographic data, consumer statistics, and economic indicators). 5. Decide on some indicators and signposts to watch.

* “Surprise-Free” Scenario
Current conditions continue.
* “Best-Case” Scenario
—An optimistic view.
* “Worst-Case” Scenario
—A pessimistic view.
* Observation
* A group of consumer behavior researchers set out to illustrate the power of observation * Also use photography and interviews
* Kim’s Model of the Forecasting

Chapter Five: Color Forecasting
* Color forecaster
* Combine knowledge of color theories with understanding of human behavior and acute observational skills * Produce a color forecast 18 to 24 months in advance of the season * Provide input for the designer’s decisions

* Color Association of the United States (CAUS)
* Based in Manhattan, a not-for-profit trade association formed in 1915 to provide color forecasting to members, including corporations and designers concerned with apparel, interiors and furnishings, paint, and automobiles * Founded in 1915 (The Textile Color Card Association of America) * First forecasted women’s wear in 1917; men’s wear in the 1960s; home furnishing in the 1970s; children’s wear and active wear in the 1980s * The women’s committee meets 2 times each year and select 25-42 colors; bring color boards; for a specific market * Members receive

* The forecast for one product category each season as a deck of silk screened color cards; a monthly newsletter; invitation to seminars; consultation; access to research materials * Color Marketing Group (CMG)

* International nonprofit association based in Washington D.C. * Formed in 1962
* Provides advanced color information for industries from apparel to automobiles, from health care to corporate identity * The panel meets in the winter and summer to develop apparel palettes. Eight weeks prior to the workshops, members mail in color samples and individual color direction forecast * Members

* Participate in expert panels and workshops; receive four color palettes a year, a monthly news letters; access to the color library * Cotton Inc.
* An industry trade association
* Color in marketing
* The most important aesthetic criterion for preference of many aesthetic forms, including apparel (Eckman, Damhorst, & Kadolph, 1990) * An element of design used in building and maintaining brand identity * Identify target markets

* Color preferences
* Universal view
* Cultural/ethnic influence
* Individual differences
* Color cycles
* Periodic shifts in color preferences and the patterns of repetition in the popularity of colors * Evolution of a color family
* Both depend on the mechanism of boredom—people get tired of what they have and seek something new

* Evolution of a color family
* Color Family: Yellow Green
* “Avocado” and “olive” (late 1960s-1970s)
* Defined as bad taste by the 1980s
* Reemerged as “kiwi” and “lime” (by 1995)
* “Wasabi” (2000-)
* Color research
* Color forecasters…
* Immerse in color every day and all year
* Track color evolution
* Sense spirit of the times

* Help manufacturers and retailers keep product lines fresh while not getting so fashion forward that consumers reject the products * Key calendar dates:
* Seasonal runway shows
* Textile trade shows
* Première Vision, an international textile industry fair, held twice a year in Paris * Color relationships across product categories
* Fashion
* Beauty products
* Interiors
* Entertainment
* Automobiles
* When does a signal indicate a trend?
* Consider it a strong directional signal when the same trend is visible during the same time period from multiple sources (Eiseman, 1994).

Color Direction:
Inclination or tendency toward change in
* Color temperature (warmer/cooler)
* Value (lighter/darker)
* Intensity (clearer/grayer)
* Importance of a hue (in/out)
* A new color is “directional” when it is trend setting or trend defining * Premiere Vision
* An important trade show for color and textile forecasters held in Paris * Communicate precisely and objectively
* Problems with color reproduction (e.g., on different surface textures; the amount of color used; surrounding colors) * Monitors are calibrated to the same color specifications * Delivered with a set of color cards, fabric swatches, and yarn samples * Combine exact notations to specify an individual color * Color palette

* The eight to ten colors selected during the initial design phase that signal the personality of the collection * Hue
* The color itself in a color system
* Intensity
* The strength or purity of a color
* Value
* The lightness or darkness of a color
* Color specifications
* Color notation written according to a system that allows the designer or product developer to indicate the specific hue (color), value, and intensity for a product * Munsell color system

* A color specification system that includes color atlas, the Munsell Book of Color, with about 1,600 chips arranged in equal steps of hue, value, and chroma and a notation for each * Pantone color system

* A color specification system that includes color atlas, The Pantone Book of Color (1990), with 1,225 colors identified by name and color code

Chapter Six: Textile Development
* Innovation in textile development
* Technical or Performance Fabrics
* High-tech fabrics with novel properties (e.g., Licra spandex by DuPont; A yarn with vitamin C) * Developmental Fabrics
* New fabrics proposed by firms and trade organizations that have special characteristics, appearance, or properties. * Intelligent textiles: Fabrics that change performance characteristics in response to the environment (e.g., protect the wearer from heat or cold) * Wired garments: Clothing that incorporates electronic technologies (e.g., garment with a cell phone or CD player) * Electrotextiles: Wired garments where every thread can transmit electrical signals * Novelty fabrics

* Fabrics formed through processes other than weaving or knitting, including bonding, crocheting, felting, knotting, or laminating * Digital textile printing
* Preparation of a print design on the computer that is printed to fabric using inkjet technology * Used to create accessories, short yardages for design approval, and customized products * Fabric fairs

* Première Vision, Paris (First Look)
* The most comprehensive and influential show
* Held in Paris, in February and September
* 18 months ahead of the selling season
* Highlights the season’s direction in weaves, colors, patterns, and surface treatments * Expofil:
* An European yarn fair held in Paris, biannual
* The earliest view (15 months ahead)
* Linked with Premiere Vision since 2004
* Publishes the color range, an interactive CD ROM and a trend book * Attendees receive a color, fabric, and trend forecast developed in consultation with other trade fairs, fiber producers, forecasting services (Trends Union, PromoStyl) * Pitti Filati:

* A showcase for Italian spinners’ natural and synthetic yarns and blends * Held in July and January in Florence
* Features a research area with multimedia presentations on the trends, complemented by a display of yarns and stitches * Focuses on high-end yarns (merino wool, cashmere etc.). * TexWorld:

* Run concurrently with Premiere Vision
* Features less expensive textiles
* Interstoff Asia Essential:
* Held twice yearly in Hong Kong
* Focuses on innovative fabrics, particularly functional fabrics, eco textiles, etc. * Material World:
* Held in Miami
* Showcases yarn, fabric, trim, and information technology

* Help companies with sourcing and production
* MAGIC
* Sourcing for fabric and print source
* Held in Las Vegas
* For original graphics and prints
* Fabric fairs in Italy
* Textile Shows in U.S.
* European Textile Selection Show (ETS)
* International Fashion Fabric Exhibition (IFFE)
* Los Angeles International Textile Show
* GlobalTex
*
* Cottonworks
* Fashion library
* Concept garment
* Sample garments made to show the potential of developmental, performance, or other innovative fabrics in apparel

Chapter Seven: The Look: Design Concepts and Style Direction * The three modern eras in fashion: Lipovetsky
Lipovetsky (1994). The Empire of Fashion
Era 1-1860s

Trend manipulation * Charles Frederick Worth
* Showed designs prepared in advance
* Changed styles frequently
* Employed models to show clothes
* The organized fashion shows: after World War I
* 1920s
* Undermining of Paris as fashion dictator
* Fracturing of looks:
* Daytime dress—functional
* Evening fashion–seductive
* Transformative function of fashion: manipulate appearance to express self Era 2-1960s

 Trend manipulation

* Ready-to-Wear Revolution
* Cult of youth + cult of the body
* Emphasis on individual expression and novelty
* Two-tiered fashion system—couture and RTW
* Designer names: brand names
Era 3-late 1980s

Trend manipulation * Extreme diversity
* The proliferation of acceptable looks
* Increased consumer autonomy
* A feminist movement functional, more comfortable apparel * No clear-cut differences between what was outdated and in-fashion * Ready-to-wear revolution
* Receive a lot of press coverage
* Reproduced in hundreds or thousands
* Style tribe
* A group that has adopted a distinctive style of dress as a marker of membership, providing satisfaction of the dual drives to fit in and stand out * Modern fashion is the distinction of “Belong to” a group, a cluster of like-minded people * Adopting an appearance style: A marker of membership in a style tribe * Triple logic

* Lipovetsky 1994
* The logic of aesthetics
* The logic of industrial clothing manufacturing
* The logic of consumers acting on individual taste
* Fashion weeks
* Periods of time when seasonal fashion shows are held in each of the four fashion capitals- New York, London, Mila, and Paris- along with associated trade shows and showroom events * Ready-to-wear

* Expensive, luxurious, and beautifully executed clothes manufactured using mass-production techniques and, therefore, not as costly as couture * Haute couture
* Extravagant, high-priced clothing that shows off the ultimate level of dressmaking design and skill, and which is made to order for specific clients; also known as couture * Street fashion

* Youthful experimentation, with subcultures from cliques to gangs, with impulse to provoke attention, comment, or reaction * Vintage fashion
* Recycled clothing sold to fashion-forward consumers interested in the quality and aesthetics of earlier fashion eras * Runway shows
* Designers and apparel manufacturers promote new seasonal lines to the press and merchants during fashion weeks in productions that involve, models, music, lighting, and staging. Term also used generically for fashion shows of similar type presented at regional markets to promote lines to retail buyers and those by retailers and other sponsors that promote seasonal fashions to consumers * Trend identification

* The phase in forecasting when a trend is realized
* Trend analysis
* The phase in forecasting when a trend or phenomenon is dissected to achieve a more complete understanding of its components * Trend synthesis
* The phase in forecasting when the forecaster achieves a creative reintegration of parts of a trend or phenomenon and projects future directions * Counterfeit
* The term for a product that is a close copy of a designer’s product and is passed off as authentic * Knockoff
* The designers’ aesthetic translated to lower price points * Counterfeit
* Knockoff
* An interpretation of the look
* Designer’s designer
* A few designers in each era that are highly original talents who experiment with new design directions * Ex: Coco Chanel, Paul Poiret, Madeleine Vionnet, Charles James, etc. * Trial balloon

* Items, styles, or looks with which designers experiment to gauge the effect and potential of a new idea * Fashion forecasting process
* Identification
* Analysis
* Synthesis
* Worth Global Style Network (WGSN)
* Fashion trend forecasting and analysis
* Trendwatching.com

* An independent consumer trends firm
* Promostyl
* Forecasting firm
* Cotton Inc.
* An industry trade association
* Doneger Design Direction
* A fashion merchandising and trend-forecasting organization
* “One-stop shop” for retailers, manufacturers, and designers * David Wolfe
* Doneger Creative Services
* Perspective on fashion comes from observing change over time