Manage Risk

(1).
SWOT Analysis
Strength
1.Australian chain of upscale mid to high range departmental store 2.Myer has stores in all Australian states and the Australian Capital Territory 3.Variety of brands in affordable price gives consumer a lot of choices 4. Strong brand presence and reputation in Australia

5. Customer-focused service
Weakness
1. Undeveloped distribution channel which serves only in some locations in Australia 2.Retail area prices are increasing still it has inadequate usage of area in showroom 3.Target consumers are present only in Australia and no global presence Opportunity

1.Foreign players are dominating retail sector so opportunity to tie up with these players 2.Opportunity to increase footfalls by exploring innovative promotional strategies 3.Enhance in showroom performance by effective use of staff members Threats

1. Consumer preferences are changing also lifestyle changing day by day 2.Customer are very much cautious about spending as disposable income decreasing due to slowdown 3.Difficult to target all segments of society

(2). the consensus forecast amongst 13 polled investment analysts covering Myer Holdings Ltd advises that the company will underperform the market. This has been the consensus forecast since the sentiment of investment analysts deteriorated on Mar 20, 2015. The previous consensus forecast advised investors to hold their position in Myer Holdings Ltd.

Activity 6

Activity 7
1. Risk management utilizes the right tools, methods and processes to manage risk. Risk is defined as the probability of an unforeseen incident and its penalty. For a business, exposure to risk could lead to disaster.

Risk can range between over-reliance on a single customer, to the merger of two competitive companies in a business. You can safeguard your business and increase its success rate by having an effective risk management policy in place. By identifying the risks before they occur, you will have the time and space to prepare and to put solutions in place if needed.

Activity 8

Activity 9

REFER to materials

Activity 10
1.
The danger of attempting to measure risks without proper research is not knowing the full effect of the risk. When attempting to measure risk and not knowing the real risk is over or under reaction. 2.

The probability of an outcome usually depends on an interplay between multiple associated variables. When performing epidemiological studies to evaluate one or more determinants for a specific outcome, the other determinants may act as confounding factors, and need to be controlled for, e.g. by stratification. The potentially confounding determinants varies with what outcome is studied, but the following general confounders are common to most epidemiological associations, and are the determinants most commonly controlled for in epidemiological studies:

Age
Sex or gender
Ethnicity
Other less commonly adjusted for possible confounders include:

Social status/income
Geographic location
Genetic predisposition

3. This Harvard Center for Risk Analysis workshop is part of an interdisciplinary project to improve the use of these methods in policy analysis. Its goal is to promote evidence-based decision making. Its objectives include:

Increasing cross-disciplinary communication and collaboration on methodological issues by bringing together experts from diverse fields to address common problems; Defining more rigorously the types of problems and data for which different synthesis methods are most appropriate, alone or in combination; Developing innovative approaches for addressing specific challenges in applying these methods; and, Identifying areas where further cross-disciplinary work will be particularly fruitful

Activity 11
Make sure that you have a distinct end point for your chart planned. This will help make it easier to read. Decide between a standard or swimlane format. A standard flowchart breaks a process down by its key concepts and required actions. If you have multiple groups involved in the process outlined by the flowchart, a swimlane format can help show who needs to do what. Each flowchart step is placed in the “Lane” for the group responsible for completing the task (Marketing, Sales, HR, etc.). Swimlanes are typically formatted horizontally or vertically. The starting point is the top-left corner of the chart. Swimlanes can be difficult to design if you have multiple concepts that have to travel back and forth between departments. This will lead to muddled charts.

2. Time at Risk (TaR) is a time-based risk measure designed for corporate finance practice.

TaR represents certain quantile for a given probability distribution, so is similar to Value at Risk (VaR). Kane could be mistakly estimated the distance or abnormal situation happen to affect the time/way to home.

Activity 12
Check with local water authorities to comply with boat rental requirements. Some states require you to hire a certified boat captain, while others allow you to rent to clients at their own risk. Find out what your state requires and take the steps to comply before moving forward.

Decide what types of boats you will rent. Everything from a massive yacht to a tiny canoe hits the water during peak season. Take into account where your business will be based. If you are running it from a river outlet, a large yacht charter will not be possible, but canoes and rowboats will work. If you are running an ocean-based business, very few boat types are off-limits. Once you know where you will keep the rental boats, decide what types and how many boats you will offer for rental.

Rent, build or buy business docks. It is possible to run a boat rental business without having docks, but having dock space and slips to store your rentals in will let you offer a one-stop location to customers. Even if some of the boats are going to be dry-docked, having water space and a dock to launch from will make your business easier.

Buy the boats. Once you have determined the type of boat you will rent, purchase as many as you want to use. The cost of boats can be high, so you may want to start with a small fleet and then build on it as your business increases.

Select services to offer. You can offer only boat rentals or you can offer water guides to accompany the boats. Price your packages according to the level of services you are providing. Decide whether to rent the boats by the hour, all day or for a week at a time. A combination of all choices will bring you a wider variety of customers.

Get insured. Boat rentals carry a risk. People who go out on the water can get hurt or even killed. Make sure you have secured adequate insurance through a broker familiar with boat policies and business ownership.

Get your business license from city hall before opening your business. Plan a grand opening for approximately a month after your opening day to work the kinks out before the grand opening.

Offer boating safety courses to adults, children and families. Scout troops, senior citizen groups and others can sign up for a weekend class. The first day your instructor can teach them how to safely operate a boat. The second day they can take the boats out for a half-day excursion.

Activity 13
1. promote robust discussion (the discussion often being more useful than the actual rating) provide some consistency to prioritizing risks[1]
help keep participants in a facilitated risk workshop on track focus decision makers on the highest priority riskspresent complex risk data in  a concise visual fashion (eg: bubble charts)

2. This activity sheet does not provide an in-depth analysis of OSHA standards and regulations and cannot address all hazards. It does not increase or diminish any OSHA requirement or employer obligation under those requirements. It is intended as a guide and quick reference for employers and response and recovery workers. The Matrix captures major activities involved in hurricane response and recovery, highlights many of the hazards associated with them, and recommends beneficial work practices, personal protective equipment (PPE), and other exposure control methods. Employers must evaluate the specific hazards associated with the job/operation at the site where the work is being performed.

Employers are responsible for providing a safe and healthful workplace for their workers. OSHA’s role is to assure the safety and health of America’s workers by setting and enforcing standards; providing training, outreach, and education; establishing partnerships; and encouraging continual improvement in workplace safety and health.

The Hazard Exposure and Risk Assessment Matrix for Hurricane Response and Recovery Work provides a general overview of particular topics related to current OSHA standards. It does not alter or determine compliance responsibilities in OSHA standards or the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, or the equivalent State Plan standards and requirements. Because interpretations and enforcement policy may change over time, you should consult current OSHA/State Plan administrative interpretations and decisions by the Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission and the courts for additional guidance on OSHA compliance requirements. Employers should modify their procedures as appropriate when additional, relevant information becomes available.

Activity 14
1. Risk matrices—tables mapping “frequency” and “severity” ratings to corresponding risk priority levels—are popular in applications as diverse as terrorism risk analysis, highway construction project management, office building risk analysis, climate change risk management, and enterprise risk management (ERM). National and international standards (e.g., Military Standard 882C and AS/NZS 4360:1999) have stimulated adoption of risk matrices by many organizations and risk consultants. However, little research rigorously validates their performance in actually improving risk management decisions. 2.

This article examines some mathematical properties of risk matrices and shows that they have the following limitations. (a) Poor Resolution. Typical risk matrices can correctly and unambiguously compare only a small fraction (e.g., less than 10%) of randomly selected pairs of hazards. They can assign identical ratings to quantitatively very different risks (“range compression”). (b) Errors. Risk matrices can mistakenly assign higher qualitative ratings to quantitatively smaller risks. For risks with negatively correlated frequencies and severities, they can be “worse than useless,” leading to worse-than-random decisions. (c) Suboptimal Resource Allocation. Effective allocation of resources to risk-reducing countermeasures cannot be based on the categories provided by risk matrices. (d) Ambiguous Inputs and Outputs. Categorizations of severity cannot be made objectively for uncertain consequences. Inputs to risk matrices (e.g., frequency and severity categorizations) and resulting outputs (i.e., risk ratings) require subjective interpretation, and different users may obtain opposite ratings of the same quantitative risks. These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments.

Activity 15
1. There is an increasing trend by regulatory authorities for the introduction of the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) approach in dealing with risk management of proposed or existing complex hazardous systems. For these, decisions about acceptability or tolerability of risks and consequences can have very significant financial, economic and other consequences for the proponents. Conversely, there may be very significant social and socio-economic implications. ALARP as a guide to achieving a satisfactory outcome has a certain intuitive appeal for the practical management of industrial and other risks. However, as suggested herein, there are a number of areas of concern about the validity of this approach. These include representativeness, morality, philosophy, political reality and practicality. An important, and in some respects fundamental, difficulty is that the risk acceptance criteria are not fully open to public scrutiny and can appear to be settled by negotiation.

2. There are many examples reported in the media of major engineering and development projects running late or exceeding their budget. Sometimes, the consequences have been so serious that they have threatened the future of the companies involved. Highly visible, high-profile projects do not, however, have a monopoly on failure. For every major project which hits the headlines, there are thousands of others which fail in less spectacular ways. The author describes PA Consulting Group’s three step process for a structured approach to project development. These are: identify the risks, assess the likelihood and the impact of potential risks, and develop risk management plans.

3. There are many examples reported in the media of major engineering and development projects running late or exceeding their budget. Sometimes, the consequences have been so serious that they have threatened the future of the companies involved. Highly visible, high-profile projects do not, however, have a monopoly on failure. For every major project which hits the headlines, there are thousands of others which fail in less spectacular ways. The author describes PA Consulting Group’s three step process for a structured approach to project development. These are: identify the risks, assess the likelihood and the impact of potential risks, and develop risk management plans.

Activity 16
1. Example 1:

Implementing a risk management strategy in a small organisation

Lone Fathers Action Group set aside one committee meeting per year to review the major risks faced by the group. One committee member has responsibility for risk management and facilitates the discussion. They ensure that the discussion is documented and use subsequent meetings to check progress against actions are then followed up in subsequent meetings. Every 6 months this committee member reports to the committee on any changes in the levels of risk faced.

Example 2:

Implementing a risk management strategy in a large organisation

In Tree Conservation International, risk management is one of the key responsibilities of the Assistant Director. They provide training for each manager within the organisation to ensure that risk assessment is built into their working practices and to enable them to carry out annual risk assessments of each project, using the organisation’s templates. These are then collated by the Assistant Director to enable Senior Managers to discuss and assess the overall risks to the organisation. A prioritised profile of the top 30 risks is then presented to the Management Committee for their consideration to ensure they are happy to accept the risks to the organisation and approve the actions being taken. This process usually takes 2 months. Progress is reviewed after 6 months with a report sent to the Management Committee. Risks are reassessed annually.

2. A recovery plan will help you respond effectively if an incident or crisis affects your business. It aims to shorten your recovery time and minimise losses.

3. Developing a recovery plan gives you a chance to consider how you will get your business back on track if you do experience a crisis. It should include: strategies to recover your business activities in the quickest possible time a description of key resources, equipment and staff required to recover your operations your recovery time objectives a checklist you can use after a crisis has passed and it is safe to return to your premises.

4. Your recovery plan contains information relating to planning for recovery as well as the resumption of critical business activities after a crisis has occurred. It also outlines the time frame in which you can realistically expect to resume usual business operations.

5. Contingency planning aims to prepare an organization to respond well to an emergency and its potential humanitarian impact. Developing a contingency plan involves making decisions in advance about the management of human and financial resources, coordination and communications procedures, and being aware of a range of technical and logistical responses. Such planning is a management tool, involving all sectors, which can help ensure timely and effective provision of humanitarian aid to those most in need when a disaster occurs. Time spent in contingency planning equals time saved when a disaster occurs. Effective contingency planning should lead to timely and effective disaster-relief operations.

Activity 17
A sequence of steps that must be taken, or activities that must be performed well, for a strategy to succeed. An action plan has three major elements (1) Specific tasks: what will be done and by whom. (2) Time horizon: when will it be done. (3) Resource allocation: what specific funds are available for specific activities. Also called action program.

Activity 18
1. If it’s not written down, then it didn’t happen!’ The basic rules in any good manufacturing practice (GMP) regulations specify that the pharmaceutical manufacturer must maintain proper documentation and records. Documentation helps to build up a detailed picture of what a manufacturing function has done in the past and what it is doing now and, thus, it provides a basis for planning what it is going to do in the future. Regulatory inspectors, during their inspections of manufacturing sites, often spend much time examining a company’s documents and records. Effective documentation enhances the visibility of the quality assurance system. In light of above facts, we have made an attempt to harmonize different GMP requirements and prepare comprehensive GMP requirements related to ‘documentation and records,’ followed by a meticulous review of the most influential and frequently referred regulations.

2. GMP is that part of quality assurance which ensures that products are consistently produced and controlled to the quality standards appropriate to their intended use. GMP is aimed primarily at diminishing the risk inherent in any pharmaceutical production. Such risks are essentially of two types: cross-contamination (in particular, with unexpected contaminants) and mix-ups (for example, false labeling).[3]

3.
Activity 19
1. Data are needed to answer all these questions, but data collection must not be allowed to become an end in itself. The more time spent gathering data, the less available for analysis and action. Focus on readily measurable outputs or land conditions relevant to the planning goals and use established methods of data collection such as product sales records. Rank the importance of items to be measured, so that time and budget constraints do not prevent important data from being acquired. Crop yield, rates of tree growth and livestock production are obvious indicators. Other critical data sets are linked to the nature of the plan; for example, the monitoring of water availability in irrigation projects or of river sediment load in projects intended to check erosion.

Monitoring may involve observations at key sites, regular extension visits and discussions with officials and land users. A checklist and periodic meetings in the planning area may serve the purpose. Those responsible for plan implementation should list the tasks needed to correct problems as they arise and should also take action.

2. By analysis of the data collected, compare what has been achieved with what was intended. Identify problems in the implementation of the plan, or in the data or assumptions on which the plan is based.

There are a wide variety of reasons for failure. The first is that the plan was found to be based on incorrect assumptions; for example, that low crop yields were caused by a lack of fertilizer when in fact the major constraint is water. There may be changes in economic circumstances, such as when the world price of a cash crop falls. Often, failures occur in the logistics of implementation; if monitoring finds that fertilizers are not reaching farmers, is this a result of inefficiencies in the distribution system? Lastly, there may be problems of communication and participation, such as farmers who are not in fact planting the multipurpose trees that are recommended. Such problems should first be approached by finding out the reasons through talking to farmers.

3. This is the point at which benefits can be derived from the research initiated as part of, or in association with, the plan. If some of the problems encountered were anticipated, shell research results may be available. This applies both to technical problems, for example of plant nutrition or water quality or social difficulties. Where new problems arise, additional research will have to be undertaken.

There will usually be a change of emphasis over the lifetime of a development plan. In the beginning there will be an investment-intensive phase in which the results become visible in the shape of roads, water supplies, job opportunities, credit and material inputs. The second stage, consisting of extension and maintenance and operation of capital works, is harder to monitor. Day-to-day management is in the hands of individual farmers; credit repayments have to be administered, supplies of inputs maintained and marketing arrangements reviewed. The transition from the politically popular investment phase to the phase of ongoing maintenance and improvement is difficult. The latter calls for even more effective and willing cooperation between implementing agencies and land users.

Activity 20
An audit is a systematic process of objectively obtaining and evaluating the accounts or financial records of a governmental, business, or other entity. Whereas some businesses rely on audits conducted by employees—these are called internal audits—others utilize external or independent auditors to handle this task (some businesses rely on both types of audits in some combination). “The primary objective of the external audit is to add credibility to the financial statements of management,” said Leonard Savoie in What Every Manager Needs to Know About Finance. “The role of the external auditor is to render an independent professional opinion on the fairness of financial statements to the extent that is required by generally accepted auditing standards.” External audits are often used by smaller businesses that do not have the resources or inclination to maintain internal audit systems.

Summative assessment 1

Question 1
In November 2009, AS/NZS ISO 31000: 2009 replaced the previous Australian and New Zealand risk management standard AS/NZS 4360: 2004. AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 (the Standard) provides Fund Member agencies with principles and general guidelines to be considered when developing risk management frameworks and programs. The Standard is supported by the: • International Standard ISO/IEC 31010:2009–Risk

Management;
• IEC/FDIS 31010 Risk Management–Risk Assessment
Techniques; and
• ISO Guide 73:2009–Risk Management–Vocabulary.

Question 2
In tort law, a duty of care is a legal obligation which is imposed on an individual requiring adherence to a standard of reasonable care while performing any acts that could foreseeably harm others. It is the first element that must be established to proceed with an action in negligence. The claimant must be able to show a duty of care imposed by law which the defendant has breached. In turn, breaching a duty may subject an individual to liability. The duty of care may be imposed by operation of law between individuals with no current direct relationship (familial or contractual or otherwise), but eventually become related in some manner, as defined by common law (meaning case law).

Duty of care may be considered a formalization of the social contract, the implicit responsibilities held by individuals towards others within society. It is not a requirement that a duty of care be defined by law, though it will often develop through the jurisprudence of common law.

Question 3
A standard approach to risk management allows risks to be correctly prioritised across all of the University’s operations, which in turns means that effective controls can be put in place to ensure the University is able to manage its operations effectively now and into the future.

The procedure applies to all activities undertaken in the course of university business, whether on the university campuses or other locations.

Question 4
Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard). Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R):, the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur. Acceptable risk is a risk that is understood and tolerated usually because the cost or difficulty of implementing an effective countermeasure for the associated vulnerability exceeds the expectation of loss.[1]

In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk assessments are often made within Safety engineering and Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, social service[2] and food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis. Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment.

Question 5
People with disability are more vulnerable to death and serious injury in disasters. Inaccessible warning systems and evacuation plans that have not considered the needs of people with disability are examples of how this vulnerability is increased. Post disaster, people with disability often experience greater difficulty accessing relief services for a variety of reasons such as stigma, physical access and lack of awareness. A recent study in Japan found that the mortality rate of people with disability in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake was twice as high as that of the total population.

Q6.
1. General Liability Insurance: Every business, even if home-based, needs to have liability insurance. The policy provides both defense and damages if you, your employees or your products or services cause or are alleged to have caused Bodily Injury or Property Damage to a third party.

2. Property Insurance: If you own your building or have business personal property, including office equipment, computers, inventory or tools you should consider purchasing a policy that will protect you if you have a fire, vandalism, theft, smoke damage etc. You may also want to consider business interruption/loss of earning insurance as part of the policy to protect your earnings if the business is unable to operate.

3. Business owner’s policy (BOP): A business owner policy packages all required coverage a business owner would need. Often, BOP’s will include business interruption insurance, property insurance, vehicle coverage, liability insurance, and crime insurance . Based on your company’s specific needs, you can alter what is included in a BOP. Typically, a business owner will save money by choosing a BOP because the bundle of services often costs less than the total cost of all the individual coverage’s.

4. Commercial Auto Insurance: Commercial auto insurance protects a company’s vehicles. You can protect vehicles that carry employees, products or equipment. With commercial auto insurance you can insure your work cars, SUVs, vans and trucks from damage and collisions. If you do not have company vehicles, but employees drive their own cars on company business you should have non-owned auto liability to protect the company in case the employee does not have insurance or has inadequate coverage. Many times the non-owned can be added to the BOP policy.

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5. Worker’s Compensation: Worker’s compensation provides insurance to employees who are injured on the job. This type of insurance provides wage replacement and medical benefits to those who are injured while working. In exchange for these benefits, the employee gives up his rights to sue his employer for the incident. As a business owner, it is very important to have worker’s compensation insurance because it protects yourself and your company from legal complications. State laws will vary, but all require you to have workers compensation if you have W2 employees. Penalties for non-compliance can be very stiff.

6. Professional Liability Insurance: this type of insurance is also known as Errors and Omissions Insurance. The policy provides defense and damages for failure to or improperly rendering professional services. Your general liability policy does not provide this protection, so it is important to understand the difference. Professional liability insurance is applicable for any professional firm including lawyers, accountants, consultants, notaries, real estate agents, insurance agents, hair salons and technology providers to name a few..